GeeSpace Constellation Rescue Complete: Can They Still Meet 2025 Targets?
Orbital data reveals what press releases don't: a rescue success and timing pressures for constellation completion.
This is an update to my March article that broke news of failures in Geely's Future Mobility Constellation and the ensuing rescue operation. The star of that rescue, GeeSAT-3 04, has finally completed its long journey to catch up with satellites launched in February 2024.
The February launch deployed 11 satellites but suffered the loss of 3 units. The subsequent launch included a spare satellite, deploying 10 satellites in total. GeeSAT-3 04 has now successfully joined the GeeSAT-2 satellites through a precision orbital campaign that transforms an apparent mission failure into a demonstration of sophisticated constellation management capabilities.
This analysis builds directly on my March investigation (linked below) that first identified the rescue operation in progress. Reading the previous article will provide essential context for understanding the orbital mechanics and strategic implications discussed here.
The 10-Month Precision Campaign
The composite graphic above shows the timeline of in-plane maneuvers executed by GeeSAT-3 04. Time-mark [1] indicates when operators began raising altitude with an almost daily thrusting schedule to reach approximately 587km. Mark [2] represents the final major burn, ending the satellite's 10-month journey. Within a week at mark [3], following calibrated argument of perigee phasing burns, GeeSAT-3 04 became the ninth operational member of the GeeSAT-2 plane, giving GeeSpace a set of 27 satellites ready to offer early operations for its parent company Geely's automotive services.
The arithmetic behind this rescue reveals careful mission planning. As of March 27th, the GeeSAT-2 plane had a Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of 274°, precessing at negative 4.71° per day. GeeSAT-3 04 had a RAAN of 294°, precessing at negative 5.19° per day. The relative closing RAAN drift of negative 0.48° per day suggested the earliest intercept would occur May 7th. However, the continuous orbit-raising maneuvers increased the satellite's semi-major axis by close to 5km daily, reducing RAAN precession by 0.011° per day. This step-ramp profile allowed operators to precisely time the orbital convergence.
Staged Capability Rollout
The chart above underscores a critical distinction between satellite generations through the way their altitudes evolve. None of the GeeSAT-1 satellites exhibit propulsive maneuvering capability, likely because they were the earliest batch from GeeSpace's "Taizhou satellite super factory" before propulsion systems were integrated. The second and third batches, launched in 2024, incorporated electric thrusters across 21 satellites. The length and precision of maneuvers exhibited by GeeSAT-3 04 demonstrate the mission-proven capability of these thrusters.
Meanwhile, the GeeSAT-2 and GeeSAT-3 satellites have maintained an altitude of approximately 587km since May 2025, indicating a possible operational service altitude for the maneuverable constellation. This creates an operational dilemma: the service altitude would likely drop to around 578km and lower until the nine GeeSAT-1 satellites are declared out of service, as the majority of maneuverable satellites will need to accommodate the non-maneuverable units. The longer-term strategy would be complete replacement once other planes are populated.
The RAAN precession rate plot above reveals the constellation's underlying structure through orbital mechanics. GeeSAT-1 satellites exhibit higher precession rates of 4.73° per day westward due to their lower and declining altitude. The newer satellites cluster around operational parameters, with 90° RAAN spacing between GeeSAT-2 and GeeSAT-3 planes, while GeeSAT-1 sits 129° away as of publication.
With public information indicating the complete constellation will have 72 active satellites and a targeted completion by end of 2025, the observed orbital patterns suggest specific architectural choices. Given 9 satellites per operational plane (evident from current deployments), this points to an 8-plane constellation with 45° spacing between planes. The current status of 3 launches bringing 30 satellites to orbit requires five additional launches into the remaining orbital planes. The RAAN spacing analysis suggests launches into planes at 45°, 180°, and 315° would provide the symmetric temporal coverage needed for Geely's autonomous driving and IoT service requirements.
Without the ability to match altitude with maneuverable satellites, the service altitude of the constellation will drop to accommodate the GeeSAT-1 satellites until they are replaced. This demonstrates how early production limitations can constrain entire constellation operations.
A Ticking Countdown: Why 2025 Looks Challenging
The orbital positioning diagram laid out above shows the relationships between the current planes and their predicted evolution over time. GeeSpace faces a critical timing constraint: launches into planes at 45°, 180°, and 315° should occur by March-April 2026 to maintain propellant efficiency for the satellites already in orbit. The white arrows indicate where satellites will drift if left unmanaged. Beyond nine months from today, existing satellites would require wasteful corrective maneuvers to maintain constellation geometry. They would rather want to perform those maneuvers with 2-3 more planes populated.
This timing pressure follows standard industry practice of launching below service altitude, then raising to operational parameters while accounting for orbital mechanics constraints. The Long March 6 launch in September 2024 deployed ten GeeSAT-3 satellites to 560km, clearly accounting for GeeSAT-3 04's special rescue mission. Future launches will likely target orbital altitudes slightly below the GeeSAT-1 satellites' position at deployment time, similar to the Long March 2C launch carrying twelve GeeSAT-2 satellites in February 2024.
Launching into planes marked A (at 45°, 180°, and 315°) would provide symmetric coverage most efficiently. The two planes marked B (at 90° and 270°) would complete the constellation but represent the final launches from a coverage optimization perspective.
Reading Public Tracking Data as News
This analysis demonstrates how strategic intelligence can be extracted from publicly available tracking data. By monitoring orbital elements over time, we can reverse-engineer business strategies, assess technical capabilities, and predict future operations with remarkable accuracy. GeeSpace's rescue operation wasn't announced in any press release, yet orbital breadcrumbs told the complete story of a sophisticated 10-month campaign that successfully salvaged a failed deployment.
The techniques demonstrated here reveal operational sophistication that can be measured and compared across the industry. The precision of the step-ramp altitude profile, the timing of plane-change maneuvers, and the efficiency of the final approach all provide benchmarks for evaluating commercial constellation operators. GeeSpace's mission planners executed complex, months-long orbital campaigns while their electric propulsion systems demonstrated both precision and endurance.
For competitors, investors, customers and analysts, this level of insight represents both opportunity and vulnerability. The same data that allowed us to decode GeeSpace's strategy is available to anyone with tools and expertise to interpret it. In an era where space capabilities increasingly drive terrestrial competitive advantages, the ability to read these orbital signals may be as valuable as the satellites themselves.
Challenge to Readers: GeeSpace has remained silent about many technical details, including the electric thrusters that enabled this rescue operation. The precision and endurance demonstrated by GeeSAT-3 04's maneuvers provide clues about thruster specifications and performance. Is it possible to determine which thruster they're using? Does it share heritage with the Qianfan (Thousand Sails) LEO communications constellation? If so, what does shared propulsion technology between commercial automotive satellites and strategic communications infrastructure tell us about China's approach to dual-use space capabilities?
If you have insights on the thruster used or want to share your own analysis of the orbital data, please write to me.