Dual-Purpose VLEO: An Ongoing Chinese Constellation Rescue Bid & its Strategic Significance
What an automaker's VLEO excursion reveals about China's space capabilities and dual-use infrastructure
I've spent the past week analyzing tracking data, comparing orbital elements, and reconstructing a timeline of suspicious events unfolding 400km above Earth. What began as an orbital anomaly flagged in my VLEO tracking tool has revealed something far more interesting than potential military activity — a sophisticated commercial recovery operation showcasing both the challenges of constellation management and the innovative solutions space operators develop when satellites fail.
In my recent analysis "VLEO: The Not-so-Virgin Orbital Regime", I explored how various nations and companies operate in this challenging orbital zone between 250-450km. Among all the examples documented, one case stood out like a flashing beacon: Geely's Geesat-3 04 (61014/2024-159D) performed unusual maneuvers, dipping into and out of VLEO in a pattern unlike typical operational profiles.
This anomaly demanded deeper investigation. At first glance, these maneuvers appeared potentially suspicious — perhaps suggesting dual-use capabilities or technology demonstrations beyond Geely's stated commercial mission. But as we'll see, orbital mechanics often tell a more nuanced story than initial appearances suggest. By following the satellite's breadcrumbs, we can uncover the commercial logic behind seemingly strategic behavior.
Rewind
Geely's space ambitions are powered by a clear commercial strategy. Through its 100% subsidiary Geespace and technology partner Spacetime Daoyu (70% Geely subsidiary), the company is building the Geely Future Mobility Constellation with a specific business purpose: enabling advanced autonomous driving capabilities for Geely's extensive automotive portfolio, which includes brands like Volvo, Lotus, and Polestar.
The constellation is designed to provide two critical services:
Centimeter-accurate positioning (essential for autonomous navigation)
Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure connectivity (the communications backbone for smart transportation systems)
These capabilities represent a strategic competitive advantage in the rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle market — explaining why an automaker would invest in building and operating its own satellite network rather than relying on third-party services.
The constellation's development journey, however, hasn't been without setbacks. The first attempted launch on December 15th, 2021, using ExPace's Kuaizhou-1A rocket, ended in failure, with pathfinder satellites Geesat-1A and Geesat-1B never reaching orbit. This initial failure created commercial pressure for subsequent launches, particularly with Geely's highly automated "Taizhou satellite super factory" standing ready for mass production.
These factors would shape the decisions made during subsequent deployments and ultimately explain the unusual behavior we observed with Geesat-3 04.
Cutting Your Losses in Orbit
Following the initial launch failure, Geely pivoted to a more conservative approach, prioritizing reliability over speed. Their decision to switch from the smaller commercial Kuaizhou-1A rocket to the proven Long March 2C reflects a company learning from experience and adapting its strategy accordingly.
On June 2nd, 2022, nine GeeSAT-1 satellites were successfully deployed into the first orbital plane (approximately 585km altitude at 50° inclination). These satellites have maintained perfect phase distribution — each satellite precisely spaced from its neighbors — creating the first operational segment of Geely's constellation. A point to note is that no significant altitude adjustments have been per formed after initial deployment — a design philosophy that would evolve in subsequent generations. This proved initial service capacity while validating the satellite design.
With confidence in their platform established, Geely proceeded with their second deployment on February 2nd, 2024 via another Long March 2C. This launch carried eleven GeeSAT-2 satellites for the second plane designed for nine — indicating an evolved risk management strategy with built-in redundancy.
While the GeeSAT-1 satellites maintain precise phase control, they follow largely ballistic altitude profiles, the GeeSAT-2 satellites have performed multiple substantial altitude adjustments.
Immediately after launch (not shown in above plot), three satellites — GeeSAT-2 03 (58907/2024-023C), GeeSAT-2 04 (58908/2024-023D), and GeeSAT-2 06 (58910/2024-023F) — were losing altitude quickly and clearly not maneuvering. One can see an attempt to maneuver 8 healthy satellites to try and match altitude and phase with two presumably recoverable satellites. This seems to have been called off on December 23rd, 2024. The operators now had to figure out a way to keep this plane operational without the full complement of nine satellites.
Out of Plane Sight: The VLEO Detour
With three satellites now confirmed unrecoverable in the second plane, Geely's next major decision came with the launch of their third deployment. On September 5th, 2024, a Long March 6 rocket carried ten GeeSAT-3 satellites to a 560km circular orbit at 50° inclination — nine intended for the third constellation plane, plus what appears to be a spare.
Hardly a fortnight into the mission, and a single satellite GeeSAT-3 04 (61014/2024-0159D) started maneuvering to lower its altitude, braking away from the pack. The other eight satellites maneuvered towards the constellation’s operational altitude, maintaining perfect phase amongst themselves. But this view, looking at just the in-plane dynamics is not sufficient to get the full picture.
To decode the intent behind the breakaway satellite, we can plot its Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) against its nodal precession rate (rate of change of RAAN), and then compare it against active satellites from all three launches.
The satellite's dramatic altitude reduction isn't random or experimental — it was a precisely calculated maneuver utilizing Earth's oblateness (J2 perturbation) to achieve a specific operational goal: a makeshift plane-change to replenish the compromised second constellation plane.
By reducing its semi-major axis, GeeSAT-3 04 deliberately increased its nodal precession rate — a technique well-known to orbital dynamics specialists but rarely observed so clearly in commercial operations. This approach transforms a prohibitively expensive direct plane change into a more fuel-efficient, though time-consuming, orbital drift strategy.
The satellite first ventured into VLEO territory on October 12th, 2024, and later spent 10 days fully within the VLEO regime in early 2025. The timing reveals that the decision to repurpose GeeSAT-3 04 was made between September 4th (when the last recovery attempts showed brief signs of success) and September 22nd (when the descent began) — suggesting the contingency plan was implemented immediately after analyzing the recovery attempts' failure.
The propellant expenditure for this complex operation is substantial — the approximately 160km reduction in semi-major axis would require between 0.25kg (electric propulsion) and 3.5kg (chemical propulsion) of propellant, assuming a 70-100kg satellite mass. This represents a significant portion of the satellite's lifetime propellant budget.
At the time of writing, GeeSAT-3 04 has achieved a Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of 19.23°, compared to the mean RAAN of 287.82° for the functioning GeeSAT-2 satellites — a separation of 91.40°. The current relative RAAN precession rate of 0.42°/day puts the eventual plane crossing in late October or November 2025, accounting for additional maneuvers needed to match the final plane position.
This sophisticated orbital ballet demonstrates Geely accumulating operational knowledge and building capabilities in constellation management with a commitment to maintaining full operational capacity despite setbacks. What initially appeared as potentially suspicious activity in VLEO now reveals itself as a textbook example of creative problem-solving in space operations.
The Digital Silk Road Above
The mystery of GeeSAT-3 04's unusual trajectory thus has a commercial explanation, but also opens the door to broader strategic implications worth considering.
Geely's satellite operations exist within the context of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to extend Chinese influence through infrastructure development across Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe. While primarily known for physical infrastructure like ports and railways, the BRI increasingly emphasizes digital infrastructure — what Chinese officials call the "Digital Silk Road."
A Chinese commercial satellite constellation that provides precise positioning and connectivity services aligns perfectly with these objectives. GeeSAT could eventually deliver crucial navigation data for autonomous vehicles, logistics tracking, and communications capabilities throughout BRI jurisdictions, reducing reliance on Western systems like GPS. Furthermore, by committing fully to develop space capabilities, Geespace has begun attracting provincial contracts, including one from the Second Institute of Oceanography in its home province - Zhejiang.
This capability becomes particularly significant when viewed alongside China's deployment of BeiDou as a diplomatic tool. With over 120 countries now using China's alternative to GPS, the GeeSATs potentially serve as a precision augmentation layer that enhances BeiDou's capabilities specifically for autonomous vehicles and smart transportation systems. As Geely expands its automotive footprint along BRI corridors, it creates an integrated offering: Chinese vehicles, operating on Chinese navigation signals, augmented by Chinese low-orbit satellites — a complete technological ecosystem that promotes strategic alignment with China's vision of technological development.
Just as SpaceX translated its Starlink experience into the classified Starshield (Note: some of Geely’s satellites already host 1-5m imaging capability with edge compute) program for US military and intelligence customers, GeeSpace is developing expertise that could readily transfer to military applications. As noted by Gen. Chance Saltzman (Chief of Space Operations, U.S. Space Force) in 2023, the skills needed to manage commercial constellations have direct applications to military space operations.
This case demonstrates why continuous monitoring and analysis of orbital activities remains essential to glean strategic insights as well as avoid wasting resources on false positives.
For those interested in continuing to track these developments, the VLEO Browser I developed is available for free — more software tools to follow. I publish regular analyses on space activities and their strategic implications. If you have specific space technology questions, orbital anomalies, or strategic developments you'd like me to investigate, please reach out!