Spot on analysis of that entire period. About the only thing missing is that a significant player in the ability of commercial providers to "prove value" was that the private equity market in the US froze absolutely solid in late 2022 through most of 2024. There was no way for those companies to take the risk of demonstrating capability if the Space Force was unwilling to commit to anything if they did.
All of this is a general misunderstanding of China's goal. China firmly believes that it can attain all of its objectives without ever firing a shot by simply outcompeting its near-peer adversaries economically.
Spot on analysis of that entire period. About the only thing missing is that a significant player in the ability of commercial providers to "prove value" was that the private equity market in the US froze absolutely solid in late 2022 through most of 2024. There was no way for those companies to take the risk of demonstrating capability if the Space Force was unwilling to commit to anything if they did.
All of this is a general misunderstanding of China's goal. China firmly believes that it can attain all of its objectives without ever firing a shot by simply outcompeting its near-peer adversaries economically.